Sarriana vs Celtiga: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal De Ribela, Sarria
The Footlab model makes Sarriana the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Celtiga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sarriana vs Celtiga?
Sarriana starts as the favourite with a 145-point Elo edge (1,844 vs 1,699).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sarriana have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Celtiga have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Racing Santander II(home) | 3-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Atlético Astorga(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Marino de Luanco(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Bergantiños(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Sámano(home) | 4-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Arosa(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | Atlético Arteixo(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Noia(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Villalbés(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Barbadás(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Sarriana score 1.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Celtiga score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarriana | 1.4 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Celtiga | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Celtiga | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 47 | 48 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sarriana vs Celtiga?
- The Footlab model makes Sarriana the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Celtiga.
- Where and when is Sarriana vs Celtiga played?
- Sarriana vs Celtiga is played on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal De Ribela, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.