Saumur vs Châteaubriant: prediction and stats
National 2 - Group BGroup B - 10Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stade des Rives du Thouet, Saumur
The Footlab AI model makes Saumur the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Châteaubriant. The most likely score is 1-1. If Saumur wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,793 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Saumur vs Châteaubriant?
A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate Saumur (1,667) and Châteaubriant (1,671).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Saumur vs Châteaubriant
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Saumur
Not enough data to predict the Saumur lineup.
Châteaubriant
Not enough data to predict the Châteaubriant lineup.
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 10:25 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Saumur have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Châteaubriant have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Granville(home) | 2-1 | National 2 - Group B |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Saint-Malo(away) | 1-2 | National 2 - Group B |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Stade Briochin(home) | 1-4 | National 2 - Group B |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Le Poiré sur Vie(away) | 0-2 | National 2 - Group B |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Pontivy GSI(home) | 2-1 | National 2 - Group B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Stade Briochin(home) | 1-1 | National 2 - Group B |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Le Poiré sur Vie(away) | 0-3 | National 2 - Group B |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Pontivy GSI(home) | 2-2 | National 2 - Group B |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Bayonne(away) | 1-2 | National 2 - Group B |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Tarbes(home) | 0-0 | National 2 - Group B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Saumur win, 2 draws, 2 Châteaubriant wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Châteaubriant 1-4 Saumur | National 2 - Group A |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Saumur 0-2 Châteaubriant | National 2 - Group A |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Châteaubriant 3-0 Saumur | National 2 - Group B |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Saumur 2-2 Châteaubriant | National 2 - Group B |
| Jan 18, 2020 | Châteaubriant 0-0 Saumur | National 3 - Group B |
Last archived meeting: Châteaubriant vs Saumur on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Saumur score 0.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Châteaubriant score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saumur | 0.7 | 1.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Châteaubriant | 0.7 | 1.7 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Saumur sit 13th in National 2 - Group B (7 points from 7 matches) and Châteaubriant sit 15th (4 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Saumur | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 7 |
| 15 | Châteaubriant | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 4 |
A question about Saumur vs Châteaubriant?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Saumur vs Châteaubriant?
- The Footlab AI model makes Saumur the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Châteaubriant.
- Where and when is Saumur vs Châteaubriant played?
- Saumur vs Châteaubriant is played on November 21, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stade des Rives du Thouet, in the National 2 - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.