SC Freiburg vs Motherwell: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa Conference LeaguePlayoff roundKick-off on August 27, 2026 at 04:45 PM (UTC)Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
The Footlab model makes SC Freiburg the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Motherwell. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win SC Freiburg vs Motherwell?
SC Freiburg starts as the favourite with a 253-point Elo edge (2,193 vs 1,941).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, SC Freiburg have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Motherwell have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fortuna Düsseldorf(away) | 5-1 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Motherwell(away) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Derby(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | SC Freiburg(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | HJK Helsinki(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Falkirk(home) | 0-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 6, 2026 | HJK Helsinki(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 SC Freiburg win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Motherwell win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Motherwell 1-3 SC Freiburg | UEFA Europa Conference League |
Last archived meeting: Motherwell vs SC Freiburg on Aug 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
SC Freiburg score 2.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Motherwell score 1.4 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 2.2 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Motherwell | 1.4 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell?
- The Footlab model makes SC Freiburg the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Motherwell.
- Where and when is SC Freiburg vs Motherwell played?
- SC Freiburg vs Motherwell is played on August 27, 2026 at 04:45 PM (UTC) at Europa-Park Stadion, in the UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.