SC Rio Grande vs São Paulo RS: prediction and stats
Gaúcho - 3Regular Season - 2Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Arthur Lawson, Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul
The Footlab model makes São Paulo RS the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for SC Rio Grande. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win SC Rio Grande vs São Paulo RS?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate SC Rio Grande (1,549) and São Paulo RS (1,563).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 14 matches in all competitions, SC Rio Grande have 4 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; São Paulo RS have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2025 | Guarani RS(away) | 0-4 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Guarani RS(home) | 0-2 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Nov 16, 2025 | FBC Riograndense RS(home) | 2-1 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | São Paulo RS(away) | 0-1 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | São Gabriel(home) | 3-1 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2025 | Apafut(home) | 1-1 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Apafut(away) | 0-1 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Nov 16, 2025 | São Gabriel(away) | 5-0 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | SC Rio Grande(home) | 1-0 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | FBC Riograndense RS(away) | 1-0 | Gaúcho - 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 SC Rio Grande win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 São Paulo RS win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | São Paulo RS 1-0 SC Rio Grande | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Oct 12, 2025 | SC Rio Grande 0-1 São Paulo RS | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Oct 26, 2024 | SC Rio Grande 1-2 São Paulo RS | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Sep 22, 2024 | São Paulo RS 3-0 SC Rio Grande | Gaúcho - 3 |
Last archived meeting: São Paulo RS vs SC Rio Grande on Nov 9, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
SC Rio Grande score 0.8 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 14; São Paulo RS score 1.4 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Rio Grande | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1 | 6/14 | 7/14 |
| São Paulo RS | 1.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 14 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for SC Rio Grande vs São Paulo RS?
- The Footlab model makes São Paulo RS the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for SC Rio Grande.
- Where and when is SC Rio Grande vs São Paulo RS played?
- SC Rio Grande vs São Paulo RS is played on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Arthur Lawson, in the Gaúcho - 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.