Serra Macaense vs Friburguense: prediction and stats
Carioca B2Group Stage - 1Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)Estádio Antônio Ferreira de Medeiros, Cardoso Moreira, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Serra Macaense the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Friburguense. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Serra Macaense vs Friburguense?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Serra Macaense (1,590) and Friburguense (1,543).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Serra Macaense have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Friburguense have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | SE Belford Roxo(away) | 0-2 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Macaé(home) | 2-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Rio de Janeiro(away) | 2-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Goytacaz(home) | 1-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Santa Cruz RJ(away) | 0-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Nova Cidade(away) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Paduano(away) | 0-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Niteroiense(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | São Cristóvão RJ(away) | 1-3 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Duque de Caxias(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Serra Macaense win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Friburguense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2023 | Serra Macaense 0-1 Friburguense | Carioca - 2 |
| Jul 6, 2019 | Serra Macaense 1-2 Friburguense | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Serra Macaense vs Friburguense on Nov 8, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Serra Macaense score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Friburguense score 0.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serra Macaense | 1.1 | 0.7 | 9 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Friburguense | 0.5 | 1.0 | 3 | 4/15 | 1/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Serra Macaense vs Friburguense?
- The Footlab model makes Serra Macaense the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Friburguense.
- Where and when is Serra Macaense vs Friburguense played?
- Serra Macaense vs Friburguense is played on August 30, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at Estádio Antônio Ferreira de Medeiros, in the Carioca B2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.