Serra Macaense vs Santa Cruz RJ: prediction and stats
Carioca B2Semi-finalsKick-off on November 15, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Antônio Ferreira de Medeiros, Cardoso Moreira, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab AI model makes Serra Macaense the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Santa Cruz RJ. The most likely score is 1-1. If Serra Macaense wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 5,995 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Serra Macaense vs Santa Cruz RJ?
On Elo ratings, Serra Macaense has 1,504 points and Santa Cruz RJ 1,481.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Serra Macaense vs Santa Cruz RJ
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Serra Macaense
Not enough data to predict the Serra Macaense lineup.
Santa Cruz RJ
Not enough data to predict the Santa Cruz RJ lineup.
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 05:11 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Serra Macaense have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Santa Cruz RJ have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2026 | Santa Cruz RJ(away) | 2-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Campos AA(away) | 3-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Paraty(home) | 6-2 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Barra Mansa(away) | 1-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | SE Belford Roxo(away) | 1-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2026 | Serra Macaense(home) | 1-2 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Friburguense(away) | 1-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Paraty(away) | 1-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Barra Mansa(home) | 1-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Serra Macaense(away) | 0-3 | Carioca B2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Serra Macaense wins, 1 draw, 0 Santa Cruz RJ wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2026 | Santa Cruz RJ 1-2 Serra Macaense | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Serra Macaense 3-0 Santa Cruz RJ | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Santa Cruz RJ 0-0 Serra Macaense | Carioca B2 |
Last archived meeting: Santa Cruz RJ vs Serra Macaense on Nov 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Serra Macaense score 2.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Santa Cruz RJ score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serra Macaense | 2.0 | 1.0 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Santa Cruz RJ | 1.1 | 1.7 | 5 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Serra Macaense sit 2nd in Carioca B2 (23 points from 11 matches) and Santa Cruz RJ sit 3rd (22 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Serra Macaense | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Santa Cruz RJ | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 22 |
A question about Serra Macaense vs Santa Cruz RJ?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Serra Macaense vs Santa Cruz RJ?
- The Footlab AI model makes Serra Macaense the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Santa Cruz RJ.
- Where and when is Serra Macaense vs Santa Cruz RJ played?
- Serra Macaense vs Santa Cruz RJ is played on November 15, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Antônio Ferreira de Medeiros, in the Carioca B2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.