Serrano PB vs Cruzeiro PB: prediction and stats
Paraibano 2Regular Season - 1Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Toca do Papão, Sapé, Paraíba
The Footlab model makes Serrano PB the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Cruzeiro PB. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Serrano PB vs Cruzeiro PB?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate Serrano PB (1,540) and Cruzeiro PB (1,635).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Serrano PB have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Cruzeiro PB have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2025 | Spartax(home) | 5-1 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 18, 2025 | São Paulo Crystal(away) | 0-3 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 15, 2025 | Miramar(away) | 0-2 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 11, 2025 | Atlético Cajazeirense(home) | 3-3 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Guarabira(home) | 1-2 | Paraibano 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2025 | Confianca PB(home) | 2-2 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Confianca PB(away) | 0-1 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Guarabira(home) | 2-1 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Queimadense(away) | 3-2 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Confianca PB(away) | 1-1 | Paraibano 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Serrano PB win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Cruzeiro PB win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2025 | Serrano PB 1-1 Cruzeiro PB | Paraibano 2 |
Last archived meeting: Serrano PB vs Cruzeiro PB on Aug 24, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Serrano PB score 1.1 and concede 2.9 goals per match over their last 15; Cruzeiro PB score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serrano PB | 1.1 | 2.9 | 2 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Cruzeiro PB | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Serrano PB vs Cruzeiro PB?
- The Footlab model makes Serrano PB the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Cruzeiro PB.
- Where and when is Serrano PB vs Cruzeiro PB played?
- Serrano PB vs Cruzeiro PB is played on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Toca do Papão, in the Paraibano 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.