Serrano RJ vs Duque de Caxias: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Semi-finalsKick-off on November 21, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Atílio Marotti, Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab AI model makes Serrano RJ the favourite at 34%, against 32% for a draw and 34% for Duque de Caxias. The most likely score is 1-1. If Serrano RJ wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 5,941 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Serrano RJ vs Duque de Caxias?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Serrano RJ (1,506) and Duque de Caxias (1,493).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Serrano RJ vs Duque de Caxias
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Serrano RJ
Not enough data to predict the Serrano RJ lineup.
Duque de Caxias
4-3-3- RRafael de Sa Rodrigues
- MMatheus Cardoso de Souza
- DDudu
- HHarison
- BBruno Arrabal Passamani
- SSampson
- DDiego Evangelista dos Santos
- BBruno Moura
- BBruno Everton Ferreira de Sousa
- HHenrique Motta
- RRafael Roballo
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 06:11 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Serrano RJ have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Duque de Caxias have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | São Cristóvão RJ(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Duque de Caxias(away) | 2-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Nova Cidade(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Petrópolis(away) | 1-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Carapebus(home) | 3-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Petrópolis(away) | 2-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Serrano RJ(home) | 1-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Macaé(away) | 0-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Artsul(home) | 2-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Campo Grande(away) | 3-0 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Serrano RJ wins, 1 draw, 3 Duque de Caxias wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Duque de Caxias 1-2 Serrano RJ | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Serrano RJ 2-1 Duque de Caxias | Carioca - 2 |
| May 25, 2024 | Duque de Caxias 1-0 Serrano RJ | Carioca A2 |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Duque de Caxias 1-0 Serrano RJ | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Serrano RJ 0-0 Duque de Caxias | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 3, 2023 | Duque de Caxias 3-2 Serrano RJ | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Duque de Caxias vs Serrano RJ on Oct 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Serrano RJ score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Duque de Caxias score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serrano RJ | 1.1 | 1.3 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Duque de Caxias | 1.3 | 1.2 | 6 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Serrano RJ sit 1st in Carioca - 2 (24 points from 11 matches) and Duque de Caxias sit 4th (20 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serrano RJ | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 8 | 24 |
| 4 | Duque de Caxias | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 10 | 20 |
A question about Serrano RJ vs Duque de Caxias?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Serrano RJ vs Duque de Caxias?
- The Footlab AI model makes Serrano RJ the favourite at 34%, against 32% for a draw and 34% for Duque de Caxias.
- Where and when is Serrano RJ vs Duque de Caxias played?
- Serrano RJ vs Duque de Caxias is played on November 21, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Atílio Marotti, in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.