Shatin vs Kitchee: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 07:00 AM (UTC)Ma On Shan Recreation Ground, Hong Kong
The Footlab model makes Kitchee the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Shatin. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shatin vs Kitchee?
Kitchee is a heavy favourite: 1,685 Elo points against 1,358 — a 327-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shatin have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Kitchee have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Eastern(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Tung Sing(away) | 0-0 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Sham Shui Po(home) | 0-1 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 Sing(home) | 1-1 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Lucky Mile(away) | 6-3 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | BC Rangers(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Prime Bangkok(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Eastern(home) | 4-4 | Premier League |
| May 2, 2026 | Wofoo Tai Po(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | North District(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Shatin score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Kitchee score 2.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shatin | 1.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Kitchee | 2.3 | 1.4 | 6 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitchee | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 54 | 28 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shatin vs Kitchee?
- The Footlab model makes Kitchee the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Shatin.
- Where and when is Shatin vs Kitchee played?
- Shatin vs Kitchee is played on January 31, 2027 at 07:00 AM (UTC) at Ma On Shan Recreation Ground, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.