Match

Sheger Ketema vs Negelle Arsi: prediction and stats

Premier LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)

Sheger KetemaNegelle Arsi

The Footlab AI model calls this one tight: 35% for Sheger Ketema, 37% for a draw, 28% for Negelle Arsi. The most likely score is 0-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Sheger Ketema vs Negelle Arsi?

A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Sheger Ketema (1,551) and Negelle Arsi (1,558).

35%37%28%
Sheger Ketema winDrawNegelle Arsi win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Sheger Ketema vs Negelle Arsi

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Sheger Ketema

Not enough data to predict the Sheger Ketema lineup.

Negelle Arsi

Not enough data to predict the Negelle Arsi lineup.

Computed on October 8, 2026 at 12:51 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sheger Ketema have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Negelle Arsi have 5, 7 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Sheger Ketema
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Jul 4, 2026Suhul Shire(away)2-0Premier League
Jun 28, 2026Mekelakeya(home)2-0Premier League
Jun 20, 2026Dire Dawa Kenema(away)0-2Premier League
Jun 16, 2026Welwalo Adigrat Uni(home)0-0Premier League
May 29, 2026Fasil Ketema(away)1-0Premier League
Negelle Arsi
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Jul 3, 2026Mekelle Kenema(away)0-3Premier League
Jun 26, 2026Ethiopia Nigd Bank(home)2-0Premier League
Jun 20, 2026Sidama Bunna(away)1-1Premier League
Jun 15, 2026Awassa Kenema(home)2-1Premier League
Jun 4, 2026Welayta Dicha(away)0-0Premier League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Sheger Ketema wins, 2 draws, 0 Negelle Arsi wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 13, 2026Sheger Ketema 1-1 Negelle ArsiPremier League
Dec 2, 2025Negelle Arsi 2-2 Sheger KetemaPremier League

Last archived meeting: Sheger Ketema vs Negelle Arsi on Apr 13, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Sheger Ketema score 1.0 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Negelle Arsi score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 22% probability of over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Sheger Ketema1.00.785/152/15
Negelle Arsi1.11.158/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about Sheger Ketema vs Negelle Arsi?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Sheger Ketema vs Negelle Arsi?
The Footlab AI model calls this one tight: 35% for Sheger Ketema, 37% for a draw, 28% for Negelle Arsi.
Where and when is Sheger Ketema vs Negelle Arsi played?
Sheger Ketema vs Negelle Arsi is played on October 31, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Premier League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 22% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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