Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Fasiledes Stadium, Gondar
The Footlab AI model makes Bahardar the favourite at 41%, against 37% for a draw and 22% for Fasil Ketema. The most likely score is 0-0. If Bahardar wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.5% of the 3,664 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Fasil Ketema (1,514) and Bahardar (1,564).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fasil Ketema
Not enough data to predict the Fasil Ketema lineup.
Bahardar
Not enough data to predict the Bahardar lineup.
Computed on October 27, 2026 at 02:08 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fasil Ketema have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Bahardar have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Hadiya Hosaena(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Halaba Ketema(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Welayta Dicha(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Ethiopian Medhin(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Kedus Giorgis(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | Welayta Dicha(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Halaba Ketema(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Hadiya Hosaena(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Sidama Bunna(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Fasil Ketema wins, 4 draws, 2 Bahardar wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Fasil Ketema 0-2 Bahardar | Premier League |
| Dec 24, 2025 | Bahardar 0-0 Fasil Ketema | Premier League |
| Mar 6, 2025 | Fasil Ketema 0-0 Bahardar | Premier League |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Bahardar 2-1 Fasil Ketema | Premier League |
| May 9, 2024 | Fasil Ketema 0-0 Bahardar | Premier League |
| Nov 3, 2023 | Bahardar 0-0 Fasil Ketema | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar on May 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fasil Ketema score 0.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Bahardar score 0.9 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 20% probability of over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fasil Ketema | 0.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Bahardar | 0.9 | 0.8 | 6 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fasil Ketema sit 14th in Premier League (2 points from 3 matches) and Bahardar sit 3rd (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bahardar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Fasil Ketema | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
A question about Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bahardar the favourite at 41%, against 37% for a draw and 22% for Fasil Ketema.
- Where and when is Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar played?
- Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar is played on October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Fasiledes Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 20% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 30, 2026Sheger KetemavsNegelle Arsi
- Oct 30, 2026Halaba KetemavsHadiya Hosaena
- Oct 31, 2026Ethiopia BunnavsAdama Kenema
- Nov 1, 2026Mebrat HaylvsKedus Giorgis
- Nov 1, 2026Awassa KenemavsGamo Chencha
- Nov 1, 2026Welayta DichavsWelwalo Adigrat Uni
- Nov 1, 2026Sidama BunnavsMekelakeya
- Nov 2, 2026Ethiopia Nigd BankvsEthiopian Medhin