Shkëndija Haraçinë vs Vardar Skopje: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Hasanbeg Arena, Skopje
The Footlab model makes Vardar Skopje the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Shkëndija Haraçinë. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shkëndija Haraçinë vs Vardar Skopje?
Vardar Skopje starts as the favourite with a 265-point Elo edge (1,776 vs 1,511).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shkëndija Haraçinë have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Vardar Skopje have 10, 0 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aresimi(home) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tikveš(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sileks(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pelister(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Struga(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Sileks(home) | 4-1 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Struga(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Shkendija(home) | 0-2 | First League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Riga(away) | 2-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bregalnica Štip(home) | 2-0 | First League |
How many goals should we expect?
Shkëndija Haraçinë score 2.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Vardar Skopje score 2.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shkëndija Haraçinë | 2.0 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Vardar Skopje | 2.4 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shkëndija Haraçinë sit 8th in First League (4 points from 4 matches) and Vardar Skopje sit 6th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Vardar Skopje | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shkëndija Haraçinë vs Vardar Skopje?
- The Footlab model makes Vardar Skopje the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Shkëndija Haraçinë.
- Where and when is Shkëndija Haraçinë vs Vardar Skopje played?
- Shkëndija Haraçinë vs Vardar Skopje is played on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Hasanbeg Arena, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.