Vardar Skopje vs Shkëndija Haraçinë: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Toše Proeski Arena, Skopje
The Footlab model makes Vardar Skopje the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Shkëndija Haraçinë. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vardar Skopje vs Shkëndija Haraçinë?
Vardar Skopje starts as the favourite with a 255-point Elo edge (1,765 vs 1,510).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vardar Skopje have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Shkëndija Haraçinë have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Struga(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Shkendija(home) | 0-2 | First League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Riga(away) | 2-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bregalnica Štip(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Riga(home) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aresimi(home) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tikveš(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sileks(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pelister(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Struga(away) | 0-3 | First League |
How many goals should we expect?
Vardar Skopje score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Shkëndija Haraçinë score 2.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vardar Skopje | 2.1 | 1.1 | 8 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Shkëndija Haraçinë | 2.0 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vardar Skopje sit 8th in First League (3 points from 3 matches) and Shkëndija Haraçinë sit 7th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| 8 | Vardar Skopje | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vardar Skopje vs Shkëndija Haraçinë?
- The Footlab model makes Vardar Skopje the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Shkëndija Haraçinë.
- Where and when is Vardar Skopje vs Shkëndija Haraçinë played?
- Vardar Skopje vs Shkëndija Haraçinë is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Toše Proeski Arena, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.