Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük: prediction and stats
1. LigRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Sivas
The Footlab model makes Sivasspor the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Fatih Karagümrük. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Sivasspor (1,787) and Fatih Karagümrük (1,869).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sivasspor have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Fatih Karagümrük have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Manisa F.K.(home) | 2-2 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kayserispor(away) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Esenler Erokspor(home) | 0-0 | 1. Lig |
| May 2, 2026 | Bandırmaspor(away) | 0-1 | 1. Lig |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Iğdır FK(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bursaspor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Iğdır FK(away) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 16, 2026 | Alanyaspor(home) | 2-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 9, 2026 | Kocaelispor(away) | 1-0 | Süper Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sivasspor win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Fatih Karagümrük win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2024 | Sivasspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük | Süper Lig |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 Sivasspor | Süper Lig |
| Mar 4, 2023 | Fatih Karagümrük 4-3 Sivasspor | Süper Lig |
| Sep 3, 2022 | Sivasspor 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük | Süper Lig |
| Mar 2, 2022 | Sivasspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük | Türkiye Kupası |
| Feb 20, 2022 | Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Sivasspor | Süper Lig |
Last archived meeting: Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük on Apr 3, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Sivasspor score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Fatih Karagümrük score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sivasspor | 1.2 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sivasspor sit 16th in 1. Lig (2 points from 3 matches) and Fatih Karagümrük sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fatih Karagümrük | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 16 | Sivasspor | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
- The Footlab model makes Sivasspor the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Fatih Karagümrük.
- Where and when is Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük played?
- Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is played on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, in the 1. Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.