Southampton vs Watford: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 36Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, Hampshire
The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 72%, against 18% for a draw and 10% for Watford. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,471 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Southampton vs Watford?
Southampton starts as the favourite with a 293-point Elo edge (2,049 vs 1,756).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Southampton vs Watford
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Southampton
4-2-3-1- 11L. Dobbin
- 30J. Ward-Prowse
- 10F. Azaz
- 27K. Matsuki
- 7Léo Scienza
- 4F. Downes
- 13K. Schlotterbeck
- 5J. Stephens
- 14J. Bree
- 3R. Manning
- 1Daniel Peretz
Watford
5-3-2- 10M. Boadu
- 9L. Kjerrumgaard
- 5H. Kyprianou
- 39E. Kayembe
- 17Iker Bravo
- 6M. Pollock
- 4K. Keben
- 16M. Bola
- 15K. Diatta
- 23O. Traoré
- 1F. Ravaglia
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 04:17 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Southampton have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Watford have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | West Brom(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Oct 31, 2026 | QPR(home) | 4-1 | Championship |
| Oct 24, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 3-2 | Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Bolton(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 2-3 | Championship |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 1-5 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Southampton wins, 2 draws, 1 Watford win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Watford 2-1 Southampton | Championship |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Southampton 1-0 Watford | Championship |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Watford 2-2 Southampton | Championship |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Southampton 3-2 Watford | Championship |
| Feb 6, 2024 | Southampton 3-0 Watford | FA Cup |
| Jan 28, 2024 | Watford 1-1 Southampton | FA Cup |
Last archived meeting: Watford vs Southampton on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Southampton score 2.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Watford score 0.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 2.0 | 1.2 | 3 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Watford | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Southampton sit 6th in Championship (24 points from 14 matches) and Watford sit 20th (14 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Southampton | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 14 | 24 |
| 20 | Watford | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 14 |
A question about Southampton vs Watford?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Southampton vs Watford?
- The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 72%, against 18% for a draw and 10% for Watford.
- Where and when is Southampton vs Watford played?
- Southampton vs Watford is played on March 6, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at St. Mary's Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.