Middlesbrough vs Southampton: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 37Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Southampton. The most likely score is 1-1. If Middlesbrough wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Middlesbrough vs Southampton?
A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate Middlesbrough (2,009) and Southampton (2,070).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Middlesbrough vs Southampton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Middlesbrough
3-4-2-1- 7W. Lankshear
- 2C. Brittain
- 10A. Morris
- 11A. Cozier-Duberry
- 30Neto Borges
- 6S. Berhalter
- 8R. McGree
- 29A. Malanda
- 4A. Phillips
- 12L. Ayling
- 1R. Vítek
Southampton
4-2-3-1- 9C. Larin
- 7Léo Scienza
- 4F. Downes
- 10F. Azaz
- 30J. Ward-Prowse
- 26Cameron Bragg
- 14J. Bree
- 13K. Schlotterbeck
- 3R. Manning
- 5J. Stephens
- 1Daniel Peretz
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 06:11 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Middlesbrough have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Southampton have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 3-2 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Norwich(home) | 4-3 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 4-1 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Swansea(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Lincoln(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Middlesbrough wins, 3 draws, 1 Southampton win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Southampton 2-1 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| May 9, 2026 | Middlesbrough 0-0 Southampton | Championship |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Middlesbrough 4-0 Southampton | Championship |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Southampton 1-1 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Mar 29, 2024 | Southampton 1-1 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Middlesbrough 2-1 Southampton | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Southampton vs Middlesbrough on May 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Middlesbrough score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Southampton score 2.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Southampton | 2.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Middlesbrough sit 2nd in Championship (21 points from 10 matches) and Southampton sit 13th (13 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 14 | 21 |
| 13 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 13 |
A question about Middlesbrough vs Southampton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Middlesbrough vs Southampton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Southampton.
- Where and when is Middlesbrough vs Southampton played?
- Middlesbrough vs Southampton is played on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Riverside Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.