Spezia vs Perugia: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone BGirone B - 24Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Alberto Picco, La Spezia
The Footlab AI model makes Spezia the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Perugia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Spezia wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spezia vs Perugia?
Spezia starts as the favourite with a 149-point Elo edge (1,892 vs 1,743).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Spezia vs Perugia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Spezia
4-2-3-1- 9S. Mazzocchi
- 70K. Bright
- 14G. Capomaggio
- 24C. Limonelli
- 10K. Jimenez
- 8A. Florenzi
- 13M. Å apola
- 6R. Sganzerla
- 37A. Matějů
- 72S. Capolupo
- 1A. Micai
Perugia
4-3-3- 9A. Sabbatani
- 90E. Vergani
- 10L. Canotto
- 8R. Ladinetti
- 33C. Langella
- 30P. van Amersfoort
- 4A. Tozzuolo
- 28D. Riccardi
- 11M. Borsoi
- 5F. Brekalo
- 1R. Żelezny
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 07:44 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spezia have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat; Perugia have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Gubbio(home) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Reggiana(away) | 1-0 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Pescara(away) | 2-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Vis Pesaro(home) | 3-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Perugia(away) | 3-0 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Vado(home) | 0-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Gubbio(away) | 3-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Reggiana(home) | 1-0 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Grosseto(away) | 0-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Spezia(home) | 0-3 | Serie C - Girone B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Spezia wins, 3 draws, 1 Perugia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Perugia 0-3 Spezia | Serie C - Girone B |
| Feb 8, 2020 | Perugia 0-3 Spezia | Serie B |
| Sep 21, 2019 | Spezia 2-2 Perugia | Serie B |
| Apr 27, 2019 | Spezia 1-1 Perugia | Serie B |
| Dec 15, 2018 | Perugia 1-1 Spezia | Serie B |
| Mar 17, 2018 | Perugia 3-0 Spezia | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Spezia score 2.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Perugia score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spezia | 2.0 | 0.9 | 6 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Perugia | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Spezia sit 1st in Serie C - Girone B (25 points from 9 matches) and Perugia sit 8th (13 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 25 |
| 8 | Perugia | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 13 |
A question about Spezia vs Perugia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spezia vs Perugia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Spezia the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Perugia.
- Where and when is Spezia vs Perugia played?
- Spezia vs Perugia is played on January 31, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Alberto Picco, in the Serie C - Girone B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.