SSVg Velbert vs SC St. Tönis: prediction and stats
Oberliga - NiederrheinNiederrhein - 9Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)IMS Arena, Velbert
The Footlab model makes SSVg Velbert the favourite at 40%, against 23% for a draw and 37% for SC St. Tönis. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win SSVg Velbert vs SC St. Tönis?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate SSVg Velbert (1,810) and SC St. Tönis (1,832).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, SSVg Velbert have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; SC St. Tönis have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | SW Essen(away) | 4-1 | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Wuppertaler SV(home) | 1-0 | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach(home) | 0-8 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Sportfreunde Siegen(away) | 1-3 | Regionalliga - West |
| May 8, 2026 | Paderborn II(home) | 1-3 | Regionalliga - West |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt(home) | 0-11 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Solingen-Wald(home) | 3-2 | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Fortuna Düsseldorf II(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Fortuna Düsseldorf(home) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Hilden(home) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 SSVg Velbert win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 SC St. Tönis win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2025 | SSVg Velbert 3-2 SC St. Tönis | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
| Sep 22, 2024 | SC St. Tönis 1-1 SSVg Velbert | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
| Mar 22, 2023 | SC St. Tönis 1-3 SSVg Velbert | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
| Sep 21, 2022 | SSVg Velbert 4-0 SC St. Tönis | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
Last archived meeting: SSVg Velbert vs SC St. Tönis on Mar 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
SSVg Velbert score 1.3 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; SC St. Tönis score 1.9 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSVg Velbert | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| SC St. Tönis | 1.9 | 2.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
SSVg Velbert sit 1st in Oberliga - Niederrhein (6 points from 2 matches) and SC St. Tönis sit 9th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SSVg Velbert | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | SC St. Tönis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for SSVg Velbert vs SC St. Tönis?
- The Footlab model makes SSVg Velbert the favourite at 40%, against 23% for a draw and 37% for SC St. Tönis.
- Where and when is SSVg Velbert vs SC St. Tönis played?
- SSVg Velbert vs SC St. Tönis is played on October 9, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at IMS Arena, in the Oberliga - Niederrhein.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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