St. Gallen II vs Baden: prediction and stats
1. Liga Classic - Group 3Group 3 - 4Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Espenmoos, St. Gallen
The Footlab model makes St. Gallen II the favourite at 44%, against 22% for a draw and 34% for Baden. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win St. Gallen II vs Baden?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate St. Gallen II (1,680) and Baden (1,663).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, St. Gallen II have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Baden have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gossau(away) | 2-1 | 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Taverne(home) | 2-2 | 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Locarno(away) | 3-2 | 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | FC Aarau(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 29, 2026 | YF Juventus(home) | 0-4 | 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Eschen / Mauren(home) | 3-1 | 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Freienbach(away) | 2-2 | 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Winterthur II(home) | 2-1 | 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Gossau(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kreuzlingen(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 St. Gallen II win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Baden win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Baden 4-2 St. Gallen II | 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 |
| Sep 27, 2025 | St. Gallen II 1-4 Baden | 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 |
| May 13, 2023 | Baden 2-1 St. Gallen II | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Nov 5, 2022 | St. Gallen II 0-2 Baden | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Mar 5, 2022 | Baden 0-4 St. Gallen II | 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 |
| Aug 28, 2021 | St. Gallen II 1-2 Baden | 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Baden vs St. Gallen II on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
St. Gallen II score 1.8 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Baden score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Gallen II | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Baden | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
St. Gallen II sit 3rd in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 (7 points from 3 matches) and Baden sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Baden | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | St. Gallen II | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for St. Gallen II vs Baden?
- The Footlab model makes St. Gallen II the favourite at 44%, against 22% for a draw and 34% for Baden.
- Where and when is St. Gallen II vs Baden played?
- St. Gallen II vs Baden is played on August 29, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Espenmoos, in the 1. Liga Classic - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.