ST Johnstone vs Aberdeen: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 20Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)McDiarmid Park, Perth
The Footlab AI model makes ST Johnstone the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Aberdeen. The most likely score is 1-1. If ST Johnstone wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ST Johnstone vs Aberdeen?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate ST Johnstone (1,879) and Aberdeen (1,834).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for ST Johnstone vs Aberdeen
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
ST Johnstone
3-4-2-1- 9J. Fowler
- 8J. Holt
- 42R. McAlear
- 11S. Stanton
- 26M. Todd
- 99R. Paton
- 7T. Steven
- 33L. Smith
- 19D. Finlayson
- 3C. Diabate
- 1T. Steward
Aberdeen
5-3-2- 15K. Nisbet
- 9A. Mouloua
- 25C. Ronan
- 40F. Marshall
- 32A. Aremu
- 28C. Cadden
- 24N. Guinness-Walker
- 21G. Molloy
- 5M. Knoester
- 22J. Milne
- 27M. Müller
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 07:29 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ST Johnstone have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Aberdeen have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Aberdeen(away) | 1-0 | Premiership |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Falkirk(home) | 1-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Hibernian(home) | 2-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Dundee(away) | 1-1 | Premiership |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | ST Johnstone(home) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Dunfermline(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Hibernian(away) | 1-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Motherwell(away) | 4-0 | Premiership |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Kilmarnock(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 ST Johnstone wins, 2 draws, 2 Aberdeen wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Aberdeen 0-1 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| Mar 15, 2025 | ST Johnstone 0-0 Aberdeen | Premiership |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Aberdeen 1-1 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| Aug 5, 2024 | ST Johnstone 1-2 Aberdeen | Premiership |
| May 4, 2024 | Aberdeen 1-0 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| Feb 28, 2024 | Aberdeen 0-2 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
Last archived meeting: Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone on Oct 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
ST Johnstone score 1.8 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Aberdeen score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST Johnstone | 1.8 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Aberdeen | 1.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ST Johnstone sit 5th in Premiership (11 points from 8 matches) and Aberdeen sit 8th (8 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
A question about ST Johnstone vs Aberdeen?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ST Johnstone vs Aberdeen?
- The Footlab AI model makes ST Johnstone the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Aberdeen.
- Where and when is ST Johnstone vs Aberdeen played?
- ST Johnstone vs Aberdeen is played on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at McDiarmid Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.