St Maur Lusitanos vs Bastia-Borgo: prediction and stats
National 2 - Group AGroup A - 6Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Adolphe-Chéron, Saint-Maur-des-Fossés
The Footlab model makes St Maur Lusitanos the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Bastia-Borgo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win St Maur Lusitanos vs Bastia-Borgo?
St Maur Lusitanos starts as the favourite with a 134-point Elo edge (1,846 vs 1,713).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, St Maur Lusitanos have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Bastia-Borgo have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Biesheim(away) | 1-1 | National 2 - Group A |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Auxerre(away) | 2-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Cannes(away) | 0-2 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 9, 2026 | Hyères(home) | 1-1 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 2, 2026 | Saint-Priest(away) | 3-2 | National 2 - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | St-Pryvé St-Hilaire(away) | 1-1 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 16, 2026 | Bourges Foot 18(away) | 0-2 | National 2 - Group B |
| May 9, 2026 | Thionville Lusitanos(home) | 3-0 | National 2 - Group B |
| May 2, 2026 | Colmar(away) | 1-1 | National 2 - Group B |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Feignies-Aulnoye(home) | 0-3 | National 2 - Group B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 St Maur Lusitanos win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Bastia-Borgo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2018 | Bastia-Borgo 2-0 St Maur Lusitanos | National 2 - Group C |
| Sep 9, 2017 | St Maur Lusitanos 2-1 Bastia-Borgo | National 2 - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Bastia-Borgo vs St Maur Lusitanos on Feb 10, 2018
How many goals should we expect?
St Maur Lusitanos score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Bastia-Borgo score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Maur Lusitanos | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 12/15 | 7/15 |
| Bastia-Borgo | 0.9 | 1.3 | 2 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
St Maur Lusitanos sit 10th in National 2 - Group A (1 points from 1 matches) and Bastia-Borgo sit 8th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bastia-Borgo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | St Maur Lusitanos | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for St Maur Lusitanos vs Bastia-Borgo?
- The Footlab model makes St Maur Lusitanos the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Bastia-Borgo.
- Where and when is St Maur Lusitanos vs Bastia-Borgo played?
- St Maur Lusitanos vs Bastia-Borgo is played on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Adolphe-Chéron, in the National 2 - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.