Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Aarau: prediction and stats
Challenge LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Olympique de la Pontaise, Lausanne
The Footlab model makes Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for FC Aarau. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Aarau?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (1,859) and FC Aarau (1,875).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; FC Aarau have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Neuchatel Xamax FC(away) | 2-1 | Challenge League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Italien(away) | 8-1 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Rapperswil(home) | 2-0 | Challenge League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Aarau(away) | 1-1 | Challenge League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Stade Nyonnais(home) | 2-0 | Challenge League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Yverdon Sport(away) | 1-2 | Challenge League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Biel-Bienne(away) | 3-3 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Stade Nyonnais(home) | 2-1 | Challenge League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy(home) | 1-1 | Challenge League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Étoile Carouge(away) | 0-3 | Challenge League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 FC Aarau win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Aarau 1-1 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League |
| Apr 22, 2026 | FC Aarau 3-0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 4-2 FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1-2 FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| Aug 25, 2025 | FC Aarau 3-0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League |
| Apr 4, 2025 | FC Aarau 2-2 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League |
Last archived meeting: FC Aarau vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy on Aug 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy score 2.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; FC Aarau score 1.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 2.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| FC Aarau | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy sit 1st in Challenge League (10 points from 4 matches) and FC Aarau sit 7th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | FC Aarau | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Aarau?
- The Footlab model makes Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for FC Aarau.
- Where and when is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Aarau played?
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Aarau is played on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise, in the Challenge League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.