Stocksund vs Järfälla: prediction and stats
Ettan - NorraNorra - 25Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Danderyds Gymnasium, Danderyd
The Footlab model makes Järfälla the favourite at 41%, against 22% for a draw and 38% for Stocksund. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stocksund vs Järfälla?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Stocksund (1,493) and Järfälla (1,528).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stocksund have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Järfälla have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vasalund(away) | 3-4 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Karlberg(away) | 0-2 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gefle IF(home) | 5-0 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Karlberg(home) | 0-2 | Ettan - Norra |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sollentuna(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Stockholm Internazionale(away) | 0-2 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sollentuna(away) | 1-2 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 8, 2026 | IF Karlstad(home) | 1-4 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stockholm Internazionale(home) | 0-4 | Ettan - Norra |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Umeå FC(away) | 3-1 | Ettan - Norra |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Stocksund win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Järfälla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Järfälla 1-6 Stocksund | Ettan - Norra |
| Jun 29, 2022 | Järfälla 1-3 Stocksund | Svenska Cupen |
| Jun 22, 2022 | Järfälla 1-6 Stocksund | Division 2 - Norra Svealand |
| Apr 9, 2022 | Stocksund 2-1 Järfälla | Division 2 - Norra Svealand |
| Sep 8, 2021 | Stocksund 2-3 Järfälla | Division 2 - Norra Svealand |
| Aug 4, 2021 | Järfälla 2-7 Stocksund | Division 2 - Norra Svealand |
How many goals should we expect?
Stocksund score 1.8 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Järfälla score 1.3 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocksund | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Järfälla | 1.3 | 2.5 | 1 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stocksund sit 16th in Ettan - Norra (11 points from 18 matches) and Järfälla sit 14th (15 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Järfälla | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 39 | 15 |
| 16 | Stocksund | 18 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 36 | 44 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stocksund vs Järfälla?
- The Footlab model makes Järfälla the favourite at 41%, against 22% for a draw and 38% for Stocksund.
- Where and when is Stocksund vs Järfälla played?
- Stocksund vs Järfälla is played on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Danderyds Gymnasium, in the Ettan - Norra.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.