Umeå FC vs Hammarby Talang: prediction and stats
Ettan - NorraNorra - 25Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Umeå Energi Arena SOL, Umeå
The Footlab model makes Hammarby Talang the favourite at 72%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Umeå FC. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Umeå FC vs Hammarby Talang?
Hammarby Talang starts as the favourite with a 263-point Elo edge (1,797 vs 1,534).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Umeå FC have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Hammarby Talang have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Enköping(home) | 0-0 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gefle IF(away) | 0-2 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 9, 2026 | AFC Eskilstuna(home) | 1-3 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 2, 2026 | AFC Eskilstuna(away) | 0-1 | Ettan - Norra |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Täfteå(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Piteå(home) | 1-1 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 14, 2026 | AFC Eskilstuna(away) | 0-1 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FBK Karlstad(home) | 1-1 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Arlanda(home) | 5-1 | Ettan - Norra |
| Jun 26, 2026 | FBK Karlstad(away) | 7-0 | Ettan - Norra |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Umeå FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Hammarby Talang win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Hammarby Talang 1-2 Umeå FC | Ettan - Norra |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Umeå FC 1-2 Hammarby Talang | Ettan - Norra |
| May 12, 2024 | Hammarby Talang 1-2 Umeå FC | Ettan - Norra |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Umeå FC 0-1 Hammarby Talang | Ettan - Norra |
| May 13, 2023 | Hammarby Talang 3-2 Umeå FC | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 14, 2022 | Umeå FC 3-4 Hammarby Talang | Ettan - Norra |
Last archived meeting: Hammarby Talang vs Umeå FC on Apr 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Umeå FC score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Hammarby Talang score 2.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umeå FC | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Hammarby Talang | 2.4 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Umeå FC sit 13th in Ettan - Norra (17 points from 18 matches) and Hammarby Talang sit 1st (37 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hammarby Talang | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 45 | 15 | 37 |
| 13 | Umeå FC | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 30 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Umeå FC vs Hammarby Talang?
- The Footlab model makes Hammarby Talang the favourite at 72%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Umeå FC.
- Where and when is Umeå FC vs Hammarby Talang played?
- Umeå FC vs Hammarby Talang is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Umeå Energi Arena SOL, in the Ettan - Norra.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.