Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius: prediction and stats
A LygaRegular Season - 31Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 03:45 PM (UTC)Marijampolės futbolo arenos maniežas, Marijampolė
The Footlab model makes Suduva Marijampole the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for FK Zalgiris Vilnius. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Suduva Marijampole (1,778) and FK Zalgiris Vilnius (1,741).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Suduva Marijampole have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; FK Zalgiris Vilnius have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Panevėžys(home) | 2-0 | A Lyga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Džiugas Telšiai(away) | 2-0 | A Lyga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Banga(away) | 3-0 | A Lyga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Hegelmann Litauen(home) | 5-1 | A Lyga |
| Jul 6, 2026 | TransINVEST Vilnius(home) | 0-0 | A Lyga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Džiugas Telšiai(home) | 2-0 | A Lyga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Banga(home) | 2-3 | A Lyga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(home) | 2-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Dinamo Tbilisi(home) | 7-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Suduva Marijampole win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 FK Zalgiris Vilnius win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Suduva Marijampole 1-1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| Mar 10, 2026 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1-0 Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Suduva Marijampole 1-3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| Aug 7, 2025 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1-0 Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga |
| Jun 19, 2025 | Suduva Marijampole 2-2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| Apr 16, 2025 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3-0 Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga |
Last archived meeting: Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Suduva Marijampole score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; FK Zalgiris Vilnius score 2.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suduva Marijampole | 1.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 2.2 | 1.8 | 4 | 8/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Suduva Marijampole sit 1st in A Lyga (42 points from 23 matches) and FK Zalgiris Vilnius sit 3rd (37 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suduva Marijampole | 23 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 33 | 17 | 42 |
| 3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 27 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
- The Footlab model makes Suduva Marijampole the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for FK Zalgiris Vilnius.
- Where and when is Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius played?
- Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius is played on September 13, 2026 at 03:45 PM (UTC) at Marijampolės futbolo arenos maniežas, in the A Lyga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.