Panevėžys vs Kauno Žalgiris: prediction and stats
A LygaRegular Season - 31Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas, Panevėžys
The Footlab model makes Kauno Žalgiris the favourite at 57%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Panevėžys. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Panevėžys vs Kauno Žalgiris?
Kauno Žalgiris starts as the favourite with a 189-point Elo edge (1,828 vs 1,638).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Panevėžys have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Kauno Žalgiris have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Suduva Marijampole(away) | 0-2 | A Lyga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Šiauliai(away) | 0-1 | A Lyga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | TransINVEST Vilnius(away) | 2-0 | A Lyga |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Džiugas Telšiai(home) | 1-1 | A Lyga |
| Jul 30, 2026 | FK Tobol Kostanay(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Beşiktaş(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | TransINVEST Vilnius(home) | 1-1 | A Lyga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hegelmann Litauen(home) | 2-0 | A Lyga |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Panevėžys win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Kauno Žalgiris win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 11, 2026 | Kauno Žalgiris 3-0 Panevėžys | A Lyga |
| May 10, 2026 | Panevėžys 1-1 Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Kauno Žalgiris 4-0 Panevėžys | A Lyga |
| Feb 16, 2026 | Kauno Žalgiris 1-0 Panevėžys | Super Cup |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Kauno Žalgiris 3-2 Panevėžys | A Lyga |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Panevėžys 1-0 Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga |
Last archived meeting: Kauno Žalgiris vs Panevėžys on Jul 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Panevėžys score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Kauno Žalgiris score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panevėžys | 0.9 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 1.4 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Panevėžys sit 8th in A Lyga (23 points from 24 matches) and Kauno Žalgiris sit 2nd (38 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kauno Žalgiris | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 41 | 16 | 38 |
| 8 | Panevėžys | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 21 | 41 | 23 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Panevėžys vs Kauno Žalgiris?
- The Footlab model makes Kauno Žalgiris the favourite at 57%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Panevėžys.
- Where and when is Panevėžys vs Kauno Žalgiris played?
- Panevėžys vs Kauno Žalgiris is played on September 13, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas, in the A Lyga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.