Sweden vs Poland: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League2Kick-off on September 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Strawberry Arena, Solna
The Footlab model makes Sweden the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Poland. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sweden vs Poland?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Sweden (1,612) and Poland (1,591).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sweden have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Poland have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Japan(away) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Netherlands(away) | 1-5 | World Cup |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Tunisia(home) | 5-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Greece(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Norway(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2026 | Nigeria(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Ukraine(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sweden(away) | 2-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Albania(home) | 2-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Malta(away) | 3-2 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Sweden win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Poland win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sweden 3-2 Poland | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 29, 2022 | Poland 2-0 Sweden | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Jun 23, 2021 | Sweden 3-2 Poland | Euro Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Sweden score 1.7 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Poland score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Poland | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sweden vs Poland?
- The Footlab model makes Sweden the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Poland.
- Where and when is Sweden vs Poland played?
- Sweden vs Poland is played on September 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Strawberry Arena, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.