Austria vs Kosovo: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League2Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Ernst-Happel-Stadion, Vienna
The Footlab model makes Austria the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Kosovo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Austria vs Kosovo?
Austria starts as the favourite with a 138-point Elo edge (1,688 vs 1,550).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Austria have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Kosovo have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Algeria(away) | 3-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Argentina(away) | 0-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Jordan(home) | 3-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Tunisia(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | South Korea(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Andorra(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Czechia(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Türkiye(home) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Slovakia(away) | 4-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Switzerland(home) | 1-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
How many goals should we expect?
Austria score 2.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Kosovo score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Kosovo | 1.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Austria vs Kosovo?
- The Footlab model makes Austria the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Kosovo.
- Where and when is Austria vs Kosovo played?
- Austria vs Kosovo is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Ernst-Happel-Stadion, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.