Tamworth vs Sutton Utd: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on September 30, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)The Lamb Ground, Tamworth, Staffordshire
The Footlab model makes Tamworth the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Sutton Utd. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tamworth vs Sutton Utd?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Tamworth (1,790) and Sutton Utd (1,774).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tamworth have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Sutton Utd have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(away) | 1-4 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Newcastle United U21(home) | 5-3 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AFC Fylde(home) | 1-2 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Boreham Wood(away) | 3-3 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AFC Telford United(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hartlepool(home) | 2-1 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leicester City U21(home) | 0-0 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Altrincham(home) | 1-0 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Woking(away) | 3-0 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Southampton U21(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Tamworth win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Sutton Utd win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Tamworth 0-1 Sutton Utd | National League |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Sutton Utd 2-3 Tamworth | National League |
| Jan 7, 2025 | Sutton Utd 1-0 Tamworth | FA Trophy |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Sutton Utd 1-2 Tamworth | National League |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Tamworth 1-1 Sutton Utd | National League |
Last archived meeting: Tamworth vs Sutton Utd on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tamworth score 2.0 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Sutton Utd score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamworth | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Sutton Utd | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tamworth sit 22nd in National League (1 points from 3 matches) and Sutton Utd sit 2nd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sutton Utd | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 22 | Tamworth | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tamworth vs Sutton Utd?
- The Footlab model makes Tamworth the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Sutton Utd.
- Where and when is Tamworth vs Sutton Utd played?
- Tamworth vs Sutton Utd is played on September 30, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at The Lamb Ground, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.