Barrow vs Scunthorpe: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on September 29, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)SO Legal Stadium, Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria
The Footlab model makes Scunthorpe the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Barrow. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barrow vs Scunthorpe?
Scunthorpe starts as the favourite with a 230-point Elo edge (1,855 vs 1,625).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barrow have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Scunthorpe have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Harrogate Town(away) | 2-2 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AFC Hornchurch(home) | 1-2 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hartlepool(away) | 0-2 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Morecambe(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Blackpool(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Eastleigh(away) | 2-3 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Stoke City U21(home) | 4-0 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Southend(away) | 0-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Yeovil Town(home) | 1-1 | National League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Chesterfield(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Barrow win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Scunthorpe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2022 | Scunthorpe 0-1 Barrow | League Two |
| Oct 19, 2021 | Barrow 1-1 Scunthorpe | League Two |
| Aug 10, 2021 | Barrow 1-0 Scunthorpe | League Cup |
| Jan 16, 2021 | Barrow 1-0 Scunthorpe | League Two |
| Dec 15, 2020 | Scunthorpe 2-1 Barrow | League Two |
How many goals should we expect?
Barrow score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Scunthorpe score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow | 1.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Scunthorpe | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barrow sit 20th in National League (1 points from 3 matches) and Scunthorpe sit 19th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Scunthorpe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 20 | Barrow | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barrow vs Scunthorpe?
- The Footlab model makes Scunthorpe the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Barrow.
- Where and when is Barrow vs Scunthorpe played?
- Barrow vs Scunthorpe is played on September 29, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at SO Legal Stadium, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.