Tarpa vs Salgótarjáni BTC: prediction and stats
NB III - NortheastNortheast - 8Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Tarpa Sportcentrum, Tarpa
The Footlab model makes Tarpa the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Salgótarjáni BTC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tarpa vs Salgótarjáni BTC?
Tarpa starts as the favourite with a 124-point Elo edge (1,440 vs 1,317).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tarpa have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Salgótarjáni BTC have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Emodi(away) | 1-1 | Magyar Kupa |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ózd Sajóvölgye(away) | 0-4 | NB III - Northeast |
| Aug 12, 2026 | DEAC(away) | 0-4 | NB III - Northeast |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Eger(home) | 1-2 | NB III - Northeast |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Füzesabony(home) | 2-1 | NB III - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Mátészalka(home) | 0-2 | Magyar Kupa |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cigand SE(away) | 0-2 | NB III - Northeast |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Tiszaújváros(home) | 1-0 | NB III - Northeast |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mátészalka(home) | 1-2 | NB III - Northeast |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Gödöllő(away) | 1-3 | NB III - Northeast |
How many goals should we expect?
Tarpa score 1.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Salgótarjáni BTC score 1.3 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarpa | 1.0 | 1.4 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Salgótarjáni BTC | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tarpa sit 15th in NB III - Northeast (3 points from 4 matches) and Salgótarjáni BTC sit 14th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Salgótarjáni BTC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 15 | Tarpa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tarpa vs Salgótarjáni BTC?
- The Footlab model makes Tarpa the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Salgótarjáni BTC.
- Where and when is Tarpa vs Salgótarjáni BTC played?
- Tarpa vs Salgótarjáni BTC is played on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Tarpa Sportcentrum, in the NB III - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.