Tartu Welco vs Tallinna Kalev: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion, Tartu
The Footlab model makes Tartu Welco the favourite at 59%, against 19% for a draw and 23% for Tallinna Kalev. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tartu Welco vs Tallinna Kalev?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Tartu Welco (1,450) and Tallinna Kalev (1,368).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tartu Welco have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Tallinna Kalev have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 4-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FCI Levadia II(home) | 4-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Flora II(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Kose(away) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Elva(away) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Maardu(home) | 1-3 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 3-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Elva(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Tartu Kalev(home) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tallinn(home) | 1-1 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Tartu Welco win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Tallinna Kalev win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev 2-0 Tartu Welco | Esiliiga A |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Tartu Welco 3-0 Tallinna Kalev | Esiliiga A |
| Jul 15, 2023 | Tartu Welco 0-4 Tallinna Kalev | Cup |
| Oct 31, 2021 | Tartu Welco 2-3 Tallinna Kalev | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 12, 2021 | Tartu Welco 0-1 Tallinna Kalev | Esiliiga A |
| May 27, 2021 | Tallinna Kalev 2-1 Tartu Welco | Esiliiga A |
Last archived meeting: Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu Welco on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tartu Welco score 3.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Tallinna Kalev score 2.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tartu Welco | 3.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Tallinna Kalev | 2.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tartu Welco sit 1st in Esiliiga A (38 points from 16 matches) and Tallinna Kalev sit 5th (18 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 47 | 19 | 38 |
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 25 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 74 | 35 | 54 |
| 5 | Tallinna Kalev | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 32 | 18 |
| 5 | Tallinna Kalev | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 45 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tartu Welco vs Tallinna Kalev?
- The Footlab model makes Tartu Welco the favourite at 59%, against 19% for a draw and 23% for Tallinna Kalev.
- Where and when is Tartu Welco vs Tallinna Kalev played?
- Tartu Welco vs Tallinna Kalev is played on October 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.