The Town vs Real Monarchs: prediction and stats
MLS Next ProGroup StageKick-off on September 13, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)PayPal Park, San Jose, California
The Footlab model makes The Town the favourite at 69%, against 18% for a draw and 12% for Real Monarchs. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win The Town vs Real Monarchs?
The Town starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (1,669 vs 1,563).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, The Town have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Real Monarchs have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Austin II(away) | 0-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Houston Dynamo FC II(away) | 1-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 17, 2026 | St. Louis City II(home) | 0-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Minnesota United II(away) | 1-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Austin II(home) | 1-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Colorado Rapids II(away) | 1-4 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Houston Dynamo FC II(away) | 0-3 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | St. Louis City II(away) | 0-3 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Portland Timbers II(away) | 0-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Tacoma Defiance(home) | 2-4 | MLS Next Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 The Town win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Real Monarchs win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | The Town 3-0 Real Monarchs | MLS Next Pro |
| May 13, 2026 | Real Monarchs 1-1 The Town | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 28, 2025 | The Town 0-0 Real Monarchs | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 27, 2025 | The Town 4-0 Real Monarchs | MLS Next Pro |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Real Monarchs 2-1 The Town | MLS Next Pro |
| Sep 9, 2024 | Real Monarchs 2-1 The Town | MLS Next Pro |
Last archived meeting: The Town vs Real Monarchs on Jun 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
The Town score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Real Monarchs score 1.3 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Town | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Real Monarchs | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The Town sit 8th in MLS Next Pro (33 points from 22 matches) and Real Monarchs sit 11th (26 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | The Town | 22 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 40 | 28 | 33 |
| 6 | Real Monarchs | 22 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 31 | 42 | 26 |
| 8 | The Town | 22 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 40 | 28 | 33 |
| 8 | The Town | 21 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 39 | 27 | 31 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs | 22 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 31 | 42 | 26 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs | 22 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 31 | 42 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for The Town vs Real Monarchs?
- The Footlab model makes The Town the favourite at 69%, against 18% for a draw and 12% for Real Monarchs.
- Where and when is The Town vs Real Monarchs played?
- The Town vs Real Monarchs is played on September 13, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at PayPal Park, in the MLS Next Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 28, 2026Inter Miami II1-1Chicago Fire II
- Feb 28, 2026Philadelphia Union II1-0Toronto II
- Feb 28, 2026St. Louis City II4-0Sporting KC II
- Mar 1, 2026Chattanooga1-4Crown Legacy
- Mar 1, 2026Portland Timbers II2-1The Town
- Mar 1, 2026New York RB II4-2Columbus Crew II
- Mar 1, 2026Real Monarchs2-2North Texas
- Mar 1, 2026FC Cincinnati II1-3Connecticut FC