Tirana vs AF Elbasani: prediction and stats
SuperligaRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadiumi Selman Stërmasi, Tirana
The Footlab model makes AF Elbasani the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Tirana. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tirana vs AF Elbasani?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Tirana (1,762) and AF Elbasani (1,812).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tirana have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; AF Elbasani have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | AF Elbasani(away) | 3-1 | Superliga |
| May 6, 2026 | Vllaznia Shkodër(home) | 1-0 | Superliga |
| May 2, 2026 | Teuta Durrës(away) | 1-0 | Superliga |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Partizani(home) | 2-1 | Superliga |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(away) | 1-1 | Superliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Laci(away) | 1-1 | Superliga |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Bate Borisov(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Bate Borisov(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| May 31, 2026 | Vllaznia Shkodër(away) | 2-1 | Superliga |
| May 24, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(home) | 3-0 | Superliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Tirana win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 AF Elbasani win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | AF Elbasani 1-3 Tirana | Superliga |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Tirana 0-1 AF Elbasani | Superliga |
| Dec 24, 2025 | AF Elbasani 1-1 Tirana | Superliga |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Tirana 1-4 AF Elbasani | Superliga |
| Mar 31, 2025 | AF Elbasani 2-1 Tirana | Superliga |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Tirana 1-1 AF Elbasani | Superliga |
Last archived meeting: AF Elbasani vs Tirana on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tirana score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; AF Elbasani score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tirana | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| AF Elbasani | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tirana sit 6th in Superliga (44 points from 36 matches) and AF Elbasani sit 2nd (62 points from 36 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AF Elbasani | 36 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 48 | 37 | 62 |
| 6 | Tirana | 36 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 36 | 46 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tirana vs AF Elbasani?
- The Footlab model makes AF Elbasani the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Tirana.
- Where and when is Tirana vs AF Elbasani played?
- Tirana vs AF Elbasani is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadiumi Selman Stërmasi, in the Superliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.