Tirsense vs Celoricense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group AGroup A - 16Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Abel Alves de Figueiredo, Santo Tirso
The Footlab model makes Tirsense the favourite at 42%, against 32% for a draw and 26% for Celoricense. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tirsense vs Celoricense?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Tirsense (1,883) and Celoricense (1,848).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tirsense have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Celoricense have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vinhais(home) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Rebordosa(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Varzim(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Chaves II(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Os Limianos(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Maria da Fonte(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Montalegre(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Camacha(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Machico(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Brito(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Tirsense win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Celoricense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Celoricense 0-0 Tirsense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Tirsense 0-0 Celoricense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
Last archived meeting: Celoricense vs Tirsense on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tirsense score 1.1 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Celoricense score 1.0 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tirsense | 1.1 | 0.6 | 9 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Celoricense | 1.0 | 0.5 | 9 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tirsense sit 1st in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A (6 points from 2 matches) and Celoricense sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tirsense | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Celoricense | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tirsense vs Celoricense?
- The Footlab model makes Tirsense the favourite at 42%, against 32% for a draw and 26% for Celoricense.
- Where and when is Tirsense vs Celoricense played?
- Tirsense vs Celoricense is played on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Abel Alves de Figueiredo, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.