Toledo vs Tarancón: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Group 18 - 33Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo, Toledo
The Footlab model makes Toledo the favourite at 43%, against 31% for a draw and 26% for Tarancón. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Toledo vs Tarancón?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Toledo (1,902) and Tarancón (1,909).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toledo have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Tarancón have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Albacete II(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 17, 2026 | Albacete II(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 10, 2026 | Pedroñeras(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 3, 2026 | Calvo Sotelo(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | San Clemente(away) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Manchego(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 17, 2026 | Manchego(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 10, 2026 | Cazalegas(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 3, 2026 | Huracán Balazote(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Guadalajara II(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Toledo win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Tarancón win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Toledo 0-1 Tarancón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Tarancón 1-1 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Toledo 0-0 Tarancón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Tarancón 2-1 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Tarancón 1-0 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Toledo 0-0 Tarancón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
How many goals should we expect?
Toledo score 1.3 and concede 0.4 goals per match over their last 15; Tarancón score 1.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 1.3 | 0.4 | 10 | 2/15 | 3/15 |
| Tarancón | 1.5 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toledo sit 3rd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 (68 points from 34 matches) and Tarancón sit 2nd (73 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tarancón | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 62 | 25 | 73 |
| 3 | Toledo | 34 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 55 | 17 | 68 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Toledo vs Tarancón?
- The Footlab model makes Toledo the favourite at 43%, against 31% for a draw and 26% for Tarancón.
- Where and when is Toledo vs Tarancón played?
- Toledo vs Tarancón is played on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.