Tolmin vs Šobec Lesce: prediction and stats
3. SNL - WestWest - 10Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Na Brajdi, Tolmin
The Footlab model makes Tolmin the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Šobec Lesce. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tolmin vs Šobec Lesce?
Tolmin starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,493 vs 1,388).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tolmin have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Šobec Lesce have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Šencur(away) | 3-3 | 3. SNL - West |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dob(home) | 1-1 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 23, 2026 | Žiri(away) | 3-0 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 16, 2026 | Vipava(home) | 0-0 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 9, 2026 | Zidgrad Idrija(home) | 3-0 | 3. SNL - West |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Svoboda(home) | 1-1 | 3. SNL - West |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rudar Trbovlje(away) | 0-0 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 23, 2026 | IB 1975 Ljubljana(home) | 4-1 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 17, 2026 | Izola(away) | 1-2 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 9, 2026 | Dren Vrhnika(home) | 1-5 | 3. SNL - West |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Tolmin win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Šobec Lesce win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Tolmin 1-0 Šobec Lesce | 3. SNL - West |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Šobec Lesce 3-0 Tolmin | 3. SNL - West |
| May 22, 2021 | Tolmin 6-0 Šobec Lesce | 3. SNL - West |
| Apr 24, 2021 | Šobec Lesce 1-5 Tolmin | 3. SNL - West |
Last archived meeting: Tolmin vs Šobec Lesce on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tolmin score 2.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Šobec Lesce score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tolmin | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Šobec Lesce | 1.2 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tolmin sit 8th in 3. SNL - West (2 points from 2 matches) and Šobec Lesce sit 9th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tolmin | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 9 | Šobec Lesce | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tolmin vs Šobec Lesce?
- The Footlab model makes Tolmin the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Šobec Lesce.
- Where and when is Tolmin vs Šobec Lesce played?
- Tolmin vs Šobec Lesce is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Na Brajdi, in the 3. SNL - West.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.