Toluca vs Mazatlán: result 3-1 and analysis
Liga MXApertura - 11Kick-off on September 28, 2025 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo
Full time
What was the result of Toluca vs Mazatlán?
Toluca won 3-1 on September 28, 2025.
Goalscorers
- 25′H. HerreraToluca
- 49′B. MéndezToluca
- 89′PaulinhoToluca (pen.)
- 90′N. BenedettiMazatlán
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toluca have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Mazatlán have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2025 | Monterrey(home) | 6-2 | Liga MX |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas(away) | 3-0 | Liga MX |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Puebla(home) | 3-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Atletico San Luis(away) | 3-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Cruz Azul(away) | 0-1 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2025 | Leon(away) | 2-2 | Liga MX |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Atlas(home) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 13, 2025 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(home) | 1-4 | Liga MX |
| Aug 30, 2025 | FC Juarez(away) | 0-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Tigres UANL(home) | 2-2 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Toluca win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Mazatlán win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2025 | Mazatlán 2-1 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Mazatlán 1-3 Toluca | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2024 | Toluca 3-0 Mazatlán | Liga MX |
| Jan 20, 2024 | Toluca 4-1 Mazatlán | Liga MX |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Mazatlán 1-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Mar 12, 2023 | Toluca 4-1 Mazatlán | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Toluca score 2.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Mazatlán score 1.0 and concede 1.8.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 2.5 | 1.2 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Mazatlán | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Toluca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy