Toronto II vs New York City II: prediction and stats
MLS Next ProGroup StageKick-off on August 28, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)York Lions Stadium, Toronto, Ontario
The Footlab model makes Toronto II the favourite at 39%, against 23% for a draw and 38% for New York City II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Toronto II vs New York City II?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Toronto II (1,681) and New York City II (1,665).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toronto II have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; New York City II have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | New York RB II(away) | 1-5 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Chattanooga(home) | 2-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Chicago Fire II(away) | 4-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Inter Miami II(away) | 1-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 17, 2026 | FC Cincinnati II(home) | 3-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | New England II(home) | 2-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 19, 2026 | FC Cincinnati II(home) | 5-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Columbus Crew II(away) | 2-4 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Orlando City II(home) | 3-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Philadelphia Union II(home) | 1-1 | MLS Next Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Toronto II win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 New York City II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Toronto II 2-1 New York City II | MLS Next Pro |
| Mar 19, 2026 | New York City II 0-5 Toronto II | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Toronto II 3-0 New York City II | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 16, 2025 | New York City II 1-0 Toronto II | MLS Next Pro |
| May 15, 2025 | New York City II 3-0 Toronto II | MLS Next Pro |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Toronto II 3-0 New York City II | MLS Next Pro |
Last archived meeting: Toronto II vs New York City II on Apr 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Toronto II score 1.7 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; New York City II score 2.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto II | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
| New York City II | 2.3 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toronto II sit 13th in MLS Next Pro (30 points from 23 matches) and New York City II sit 8th (39 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | New York City II | 23 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 35 | 39 |
| 7 | Toronto II | 23 | 10 | 0 | 13 | 38 | 47 | 30 |
| 8 | New York City II | 23 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 35 | 39 |
| 10 | New York City II | 21 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 35 | 34 | 33 |
| 13 | Toronto II | 23 | 10 | 0 | 13 | 38 | 47 | 30 |
| 13 | Toronto II | 22 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 37 | 42 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Toronto II vs New York City II?
- The Footlab model makes Toronto II the favourite at 39%, against 23% for a draw and 38% for New York City II.
- Where and when is Toronto II vs New York City II played?
- Toronto II vs New York City II is played on August 28, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at York Lions Stadium, in the MLS Next Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 28, 2026Inter Miami II1-1Chicago Fire II
- Feb 28, 2026Philadelphia Union II1-0Toronto II
- Feb 28, 2026St. Louis City II4-0Sporting KC II
- Mar 1, 2026Chattanooga1-4Crown Legacy
- Mar 1, 2026Portland Timbers II2-1The Town
- Mar 1, 2026New York RB II4-2Columbus Crew II
- Mar 1, 2026Real Monarchs2-2North Texas
- Mar 1, 2026FC Cincinnati II1-3Connecticut FC