Torrijos vs Tarancón: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Group 18 - 2Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio San Francisco, Torrijos
The Footlab model makes Tarancón the favourite at 48%, against 30% for a draw and 22% for Torrijos. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Torrijos vs Tarancón?
Tarancón starts as the favourite with a 223-point Elo edge (1,905 vs 1,682).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Torrijos have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Tarancón have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2024 | San Clemente(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 5, 2024 | Albacete II(away) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 1, 2024 | Marchamalo(home) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Huracán Balazote(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Conquense(home) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Manchego(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 17, 2026 | Manchego(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 10, 2026 | Cazalegas(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 3, 2026 | Huracán Balazote(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Guadalajara II(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Torrijos win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Tarancón win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2024 | Tarancón 0-2 Torrijos | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 15, 2023 | Torrijos 0-0 Tarancón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 8, 2023 | Tarancón 2-3 Torrijos | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Dec 11, 2022 | Torrijos 0-1 Tarancón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Feb 19, 2022 | Tarancón 2-1 Torrijos | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 23, 2021 | Torrijos 5-0 Tarancón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
How many goals should we expect?
Torrijos score 0.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Tarancón score 1.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrijos | 0.8 | 1.3 | 6 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Tarancón | 1.5 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tarancón | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 62 | 25 | 73 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Torrijos vs Tarancón?
- The Footlab model makes Tarancón the favourite at 48%, against 30% for a draw and 22% for Torrijos.
- Where and when is Torrijos vs Tarancón played?
- Torrijos vs Tarancón is played on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio San Francisco, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.