Toulon vs Chateauroux: prediction and stats
National 2 - Group CGroup C - 23Kick-off on April 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade de Bon-Rencontre, Toulon
The Footlab model makes Toulon the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Chateauroux. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Toulon vs Chateauroux?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Toulon (1,743) and Chateauroux (1,699).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toulon have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Chateauroux have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Chasselay MDA(away) | 1-1 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 16, 2026 | Bobigny(home) | 0-0 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 9, 2026 | Saint-Priest(away) | 2-2 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 2, 2026 | Fréjus St-Raphaël(away) | 1-0 | National 2 - Group C |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Rumilly Vallières(home) | 2-1 | National 2 - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hauts Lyonnais(away) | 0-0 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 15, 2026 | Valenciennes(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 3 |
| May 9, 2026 | Sochaux(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Dijon(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Fleury 91(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Toulon score 1.4 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Chateauroux score 1.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulon | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Chateauroux | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toulon sit 7th in National 2 - Group C (1 points from 1 matches) and Chateauroux sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Toulon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Chateauroux | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Toulon vs Chateauroux?
- The Footlab model makes Toulon the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Chateauroux.
- Where and when is Toulon vs Chateauroux played?
- Toulon vs Chateauroux is played on April 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de Bon-Rencontre, in the National 2 - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.