Trefelin vs GAP Connah S Quay FC: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 28Kick-off on March 12, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Ynys Park, Cwmafan
The Footlab model makes GAP Connah S Quay FC the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Trefelin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Trefelin vs GAP Connah S Quay FC?
GAP Connah S Quay FC starts as the favourite with a 205-point Elo edge (1,945 vs 1,740).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Trefelin have 10 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats; GAP Connah S Quay FC have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(away) | 0-6 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Llandudno(home) | 0-4 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 5-0 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Trefelin(home) | 6-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Holywell(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Ballkani(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Trefelin win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 GAP Connah S Quay FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 6-0 Trefelin | Premier League |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Trefelin 1-2 GAP Connah S Quay FC | Welsh Cup |
| Sep 25, 2021 | Trefelin 0-4 GAP Connah S Quay FC | Welsh Cup |
Last archived meeting: GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Trefelin on Aug 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Trefelin score 2.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; GAP Connah S Quay FC score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trefelin | 2.6 | 1.4 | 7 | 3/15 | 11/15 |
| GAP Connah S Quay FC | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Trefelin sit 16th in Premier League (0 points from 4 matches) and GAP Connah S Quay FC sit 4th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 9 |
| 16 | Trefelin | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Trefelin vs GAP Connah S Quay FC?
- The Footlab model makes GAP Connah S Quay FC the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Trefelin.
- Where and when is Trefelin vs GAP Connah S Quay FC played?
- Trefelin vs GAP Connah S Quay FC is played on March 12, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Ynys Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.