Tropezón vs Guarnizo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 29Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal Santa Ana, Torrelavega
The Footlab model makes Tropezón the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Guarnizo. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tropezón vs Guarnizo?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Tropezón (1,900) and Guarnizo (1,846).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tropezón have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Guarnizo have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Arnedo(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Arnedo(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Laredo(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 31, 2026 | Laredo(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 24, 2026 | Guarnizo(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Tropezón(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 17, 2026 | Tropezón(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 9, 2026 | Bezana(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 3, 2026 | Torina(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Barquereño(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Tropezón win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Guarnizo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Tropezón 3-0 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 17, 2026 | Guarnizo 0-0 Tropezón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Guarnizo 1-0 Tropezón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Tropezón 0-3 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Guarnizo 1-1 Tropezón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Tropezón 2-0 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Tropezón score 1.2 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Guarnizo score 1.3 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropezón | 1.2 | 0.5 | 9 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
| Guarnizo | 1.3 | 0.6 | 9 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tropezón sit 3rd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (67 points from 34 matches) and Guarnizo sit 4th (66 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tropezón | 34 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 50 | 27 | 67 |
| 4 | Guarnizo | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 47 | 26 | 66 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tropezón vs Guarnizo?
- The Footlab model makes Tropezón the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Guarnizo.
- Where and when is Tropezón vs Guarnizo played?
- Tropezón vs Guarnizo is played on April 4, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal Santa Ana, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.