Tvååker vs AFC Malmo: prediction and stats
Ettan - SödraSödra - 21Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Övrevi, Tvååker
The Footlab model makes Tvååker the favourite at 46%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for AFC Malmo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tvååker vs AFC Malmo?
Tvååker starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (1,633 vs 1,527).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tvååker have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; AFC Malmo have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Olympic(away) | 4-3 | Ettan - Södra |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kristianstad(away) | 2-1 | Ettan - Södra |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atvidabergs FF(home) | 1-2 | Ettan - Södra |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Utsikten(home) | 2-2 | Ettan - Södra |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Hässleholms IF(away) | 2-4 | Ettan - Södra |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lund(home) | 2-5 | Ettan - Södra |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Olympic(away) | 2-2 | Ettan - Södra |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Trelleborg(home) | 1-2 | Ettan - Södra |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Angelholms FF(away) | 2-2 | Ettan - Södra |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Jonkopings Sodra(home) | 1-0 | Ettan - Södra |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Tvååker win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 AFC Malmo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | AFC Malmo 0-1 Tvååker | Ettan - Södra |
How many goals should we expect?
Tvååker score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; AFC Malmo score 2.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tvååker | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| AFC Malmo | 2.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tvååker sit 7th in Ettan - Södra (28 points from 18 matches) and AFC Malmo sit 5th (29 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AFC Malmo | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 27 | 29 |
| 7 | Tvååker | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 27 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tvååker vs AFC Malmo?
- The Footlab model makes Tvååker the favourite at 46%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for AFC Malmo.
- Where and when is Tvååker vs AFC Malmo played?
- Tvååker vs AFC Malmo is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Övrevi, in the Ettan - Södra.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.