Ucam Murcia vs Castellonense: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 25Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio BeSoccer La Condomina, Murcia
The Footlab model makes Ucam Murcia the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Castellonense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ucam Murcia vs Castellonense?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Ucam Murcia (1,911) and Castellonense (1,861).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ucam Murcia have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Castellonense have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Xerez(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Real Jaén(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | La Unión Atlético(away) | 1-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Málaga II(home) | 4-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Deportiva Minera(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Atzeneta(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| May 2, 2026 | Hércules II(away) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Saguntino(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ontinyent 1931(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Villarreal III(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
How many goals should we expect?
Ucam Murcia score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Castellonense score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ucam Murcia | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Castellonense | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ucam Murcia vs Castellonense?
- The Footlab model makes Ucam Murcia the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Castellonense.
- Where and when is Ucam Murcia vs Castellonense played?
- Ucam Murcia vs Castellonense is played on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio BeSoccer La Condomina, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.