Ümraniyespor vs Keçiörengücü: prediction and stats
1. LigRegular Season - 23Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu, İstanbul
The Footlab model makes Keçiörengücü the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Ümraniyespor. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ümraniyespor vs Keçiörengücü?
Keçiörengücü starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,859 vs 1,750).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ümraniyespor have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Keçiörengücü have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Esenler Erokspor(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fatih Karagümrük(away) | 1-2 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mardin 1969(home) | 0-0 | 1. Lig |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Keçiörengücü(home) | 1-4 | 1. Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bandırmaspor(away) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Pendikspor(home) | 4-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Antalyaspor(away) | 3-4 | 1. Lig |
| May 7, 2026 | Çorum FK(away) | 0-1 | 1. Lig |
| May 2, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(away) | 4-1 | 1. Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ümraniyespor win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Keçiörengücü win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Ümraniyespor 1-4 Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Keçiörengücü 3-1 Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Keçiörengücü 0-1 Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Ümraniyespor 1-2 Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Keçiörengücü 4-2 Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
| Dec 9, 2023 | Ümraniyespor 2-0 Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
Last archived meeting: Ümraniyespor vs Keçiörengücü on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ümraniyespor score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Keçiörengücü score 2.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ümraniyespor | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Keçiörengücü | 2.0 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ümraniyespor sit 15th in 1. Lig (2 points from 3 matches) and Keçiörengücü sit 8th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Keçiörengücü | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
| 15 | Ümraniyespor | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ümraniyespor vs Keçiörengücü?
- The Footlab model makes Keçiörengücü the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Ümraniyespor.
- Where and when is Ümraniyespor vs Keçiörengücü played?
- Ümraniyespor vs Keçiörengücü is played on January 31, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu, in the 1. Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.