Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor: prediction and stats
1. LigRegular Season - 4Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Aktepe Stadı, Ankara
The Footlab model makes Keçiörengücü the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Ümraniyespor. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor?
Keçiörengücü starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,856 vs 1,749).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Keçiörengücü have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Ümraniyespor have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bandırmaspor(away) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Pendikspor(home) | 4-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Antalyaspor(away) | 3-4 | 1. Lig |
| May 7, 2026 | Çorum FK(away) | 0-1 | 1. Lig |
| May 2, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(away) | 4-1 | 1. Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Esenler Erokspor(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fatih Karagümrük(away) | 1-2 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mardin 1969(home) | 0-0 | 1. Lig |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Keçiörengücü(home) | 1-4 | 1. Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Keçiörengücü win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Ümraniyespor win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Ümraniyespor 1-4 Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Keçiörengücü 3-1 Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Keçiörengücü 0-1 Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Ümraniyespor 1-2 Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Keçiörengücü 4-2 Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
| Dec 9, 2023 | Ümraniyespor 2-0 Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
Last archived meeting: Ümraniyespor vs Keçiörengücü on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Keçiörengücü score 2.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Ümraniyespor score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keçiörengücü | 2.0 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Ümraniyespor | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Keçiörengücü sit 8th in 1. Lig (4 points from 3 matches) and Ümraniyespor sit 15th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Keçiörengücü | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
| 15 | Ümraniyespor | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor?
- The Footlab model makes Keçiörengücü the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Ümraniyespor.
- Where and when is Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor played?
- Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor is played on August 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Aktepe Stadı, in the 1. Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.