Ümraniyespor vs Manisa F.K.: prediction and stats
1. LigRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu, İstanbul
The Footlab model makes Ümraniyespor the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Manisa F.K.. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ümraniyespor vs Manisa F.K.?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Ümraniyespor (1,750) and Manisa F.K. (1,822).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ümraniyespor have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Manisa F.K. have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Esenler Erokspor(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fatih Karagümrük(away) | 1-2 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mardin 1969(home) | 0-0 | 1. Lig |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Keçiörengücü(home) | 1-4 | 1. Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Sivasspor(away) | 2-2 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vanspor FK(home) | 4-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Boluspor(away) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| May 1, 2026 | Sakaryaspor(home) | 5-0 | 1. Lig |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Keçiörengücü(away) | 1-2 | 1. Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Ümraniyespor win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Manisa F.K. win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | Manisa F.K. 1-0 Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
| Aug 8, 2025 | Ümraniyespor 2-1 Manisa F.K. | 1. Lig |
| May 10, 2025 | Ümraniyespor 0-1 Manisa F.K. | 1. Lig |
| Jan 13, 2025 | Manisa F.K. 0-3 Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
| Mar 11, 2024 | Manisa F.K. 3-2 Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Ümraniyespor 3-2 Manisa F.K. | 1. Lig |
Last archived meeting: Manisa F.K. vs Ümraniyespor on Jan 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ümraniyespor score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Manisa F.K. score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ümraniyespor | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Manisa F.K. | 1.7 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ümraniyespor sit 15th in 1. Lig (2 points from 3 matches) and Manisa F.K. sit 3rd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Manisa F.K. | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Ümraniyespor | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ümraniyespor vs Manisa F.K.?
- The Footlab model makes Ümraniyespor the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Manisa F.K..
- Where and when is Ümraniyespor vs Manisa F.K. played?
- Ümraniyespor vs Manisa F.K. is played on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu, in the 1. Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.