Vanspor FK vs Bursaspor: prediction and stats
1. LigRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Atatürk Şehir Stadyumu, Van
The Footlab model makes Bursaspor the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Vanspor FK. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vanspor FK vs Bursaspor?
Bursaspor starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (1,901 vs 1,758).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vanspor FK have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Bursaspor have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | İstanbulspor(home) | 3-2 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Manisa F.K.(away) | 1-4 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kayserispor(home) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 1, 2026 | Hatayspor(away) | 1-3 | 1. Lig |
| Apr 25, 2026 | İstanbulspor(home) | 1-3 | 1. Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Fatih Karagümrük(away) | 1-2 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Iğdır FK(home) | 1-0 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Bodrum FK(away) | 2-0 | 1. Lig |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Aliağa FAŞ(away) | 5-0 | 2. Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Vanspor FK win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Bursaspor win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2024 | Bursaspor 2-2 Vanspor FK | Türkiye Kupası |
| May 4, 2024 | Bursaspor 3-0 Vanspor FK | 2. Lig |
| Dec 25, 2023 | Vanspor FK 3-0 Bursaspor | 2. Lig |
Last archived meeting: Bursaspor vs Vanspor FK on Dec 4, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Vanspor FK score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Bursaspor score 2.3 and concede 0.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanspor FK | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Bursaspor | 2.3 | 0.3 | 11 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vanspor FK sit 14th in 1. Lig (3 points from 3 matches) and Bursaspor sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bursaspor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Vanspor FK | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vanspor FK vs Bursaspor?
- The Footlab model makes Bursaspor the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Vanspor FK.
- Where and when is Vanspor FK vs Bursaspor played?
- Vanspor FK vs Bursaspor is played on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Atatürk Şehir Stadyumu, in the 1. Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.