Vancouver FC vs Forge: prediction and stats
Canadian Premier LeagueGroup StageKick-off on September 26, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre, Langley, British Columbia
The Footlab model makes Forge the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Vancouver FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vancouver FC vs Forge?
Forge starts as the favourite with a 195-point Elo edge (1,849 vs 1,655).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vancouver FC have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Forge have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | HFX Wanderers FC(away) | 0-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Atlético Ottawa(away) | 0-4 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pacific FC(home) | 1-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Forge(away) | 1-0 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atlético Ottawa(home) | 3-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Pacific FC(home) | 2-0 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Supra du Quebec(home) | 3-2 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cavalry FC(away) | 1-2 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Vancouver FC(home) | 0-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | HFX Wanderers FC(away) | 0-0 | Canadian Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Vancouver FC win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Forge win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Forge 0-1 Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Forge 3-2 Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Vancouver FC 0-1 Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Forge 1-1 Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Vancouver FC 0-1 Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Forge 2-1 Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Vancouver FC score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Forge score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver FC | 1.6 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Forge | 1.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vancouver FC sit 4th in Canadian Premier League (27 points from 19 matches) and Forge sit 1st (41 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forge | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 13 | 41 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 22 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vancouver FC vs Forge?
- The Footlab model makes Forge the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Vancouver FC.
- Where and when is Vancouver FC vs Forge played?
- Vancouver FC vs Forge is played on September 26, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre, in the Canadian Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 4, 2026Forge2-0Atlético Ottawa
- Apr 4, 2026Vancouver FC0-1HFX Wanderers FC
- Apr 5, 2026Pacific FC1-2Cavalry FC
- Apr 11, 2026York United2-2HFX Wanderers FC
- Apr 11, 2026Pacific FC2-3Supra du Quebec
- Apr 12, 2026Cavalry FC3-1Atlético Ottawa
- Apr 12, 2026Vancouver FC0-1Forge
- Apr 18, 2026HFX Wanderers FC2-2Pacific FC